User:William M. Connolley/Climate workspace

Misc

TAR

What does the TAR say about polar ch?

SPM

Based on recent global model simulations, it is very likely7 that nearly all land areas will warm more rapidly than the global average, particularly those at northern high latitudes in the cold season. Most notable of these is the warming in the northern regions of North America, and northern and central Asia, which exceeds global mean warming in each model by more than 40%. In contrast, the warming is less than the global mean change in south and southeast Asia in summer and in southern South America in winter. (SPM)

Northern Hemisphere snow cover and sea-ice extent are projected to decrease further.
Glaciers and ice caps are projected to continue their widespread retreat during the 21st century.
The Antarctic ice sheet is likely 7 to gain mass because of greater precipitation, while the Greenland ice sheet is likely7 to lose mass because the increase in runoff will exceed the precipitation increase. (SPM again)

Ice sheets will continue to react to climate warming and contribute to sea level rise for thousands of years after climate has been stabilised. Climate models indicate that the local warming over Greenland is likely7 to be one to three times the global average. Ice sheet models project that a local warming of larger than 3°C, if sustained for millennia, would lead to virtually a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a resulting sea level rise of about 7 metres. A local warming of 5.5°C, if sustained for 1,000 years, would be likely7 to result in a contribution from Greenland of about 3 metres to sea level rise.
Current ice dynamic models suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet could contribute up to 3 metres to sea level rise over the next 1,000 years, but such results are strongly dependent on model assumptions regarding climate change scenarios, ice dynamics and other factors.

Main report

Graph: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig9-10.htm

...to be continued...